I think that Barack Obama will win the Democratic nomination. As many have pointed out recently, mathematically it is impossible for him to lose unless the super delegates overturn the pledged delegates, and I think the Democrats are aware of the hullabaloo that would be raised if that were to happen. Considering this, it looks like we will have a McCain vs. Obama race for the presidency in 2008. Up until the past week or so, I might have given the edge to Obama. But so much can change in just just a few days much less 7 months, and indeed we have heard the brakes screeching on Obama’s momentum. So assuming Obama is the Democratic nominee, what can he do to be victorious come November? Here are my thoughts:

1. Keep a lid on Reverand Wright and his church. Do not let him give any interviews or release any statements, ever. He will inevitably be put in a position to defend himself and his words, and anything he says that follows will not be good for the Obama campaign.

2. Consider holding a meeting with the church elders or perhaps speaking to the congregation. This might be tricky because it would probably involve some confrontation with respect to the church’s ideology. But Obama’s relationship with the church needs to be reconciled, and I think this is probably the only way to do it. Only after this could he continue to justify his close ties to the church and to Reverend Wright.

3. Completely sever the Obama campaign from supporters of Reverand Wright who will espouse his views. These people who appear on news talk shows and post on Internet message boards will only damage the Obama image. Release some statement that will discredit these supporters, and make it clear that these views have no part of the Obama campaign.

4. Stop talking about race, at least for now. Obama has lost his credibility on this subject for the moment. He may have given a great speech about race, but it doesn’t matter. Anything he says right now about race will be highly scrutinized, and that is never good. I am thinking specifically of a statement he said that included the words “typical white person.” Those words are not OK. White people do not want to be stereotyped any more than black people do. Just stay away from that for a while.

5. Since the possibility of a campaign about racial reconciliation seems to have gone out the window, at least for a little while, start shifting the focus of the campaign toward political change. Find some other hook. The Obama image can still be a huge advantage, especially when pitted against McCain. It just cannot depend on race anymore.

6. Beware of any other dirt that might come up in this campaign, and get out ahead of it. After the Reverand Wright crisis and the SNL skit that parodied the media infatuation with Obama, everyone is going to start scrutinizing him a lot more closely. There are going to be no more free rides built upon Obama’s media appeal.

I don’t know how things will turn out in the general election. I think it’s too early for anyone to predict anything. I don’t think the Reverend Wright scandal sounds the death knell for Obama’s campaign. But it could very well be the first of a series of fatal blows. I hope Obama considers that he needs to take action to stop the bleeding. These suggestions could be a start.

A note: these thoughts come from an undecided voter with conservative leanings.

I found kind of a cool website: www.createpaintings.com. You answer a few personality questions and it creates a painting for you. Here’s what mine looks like:

I made my first big purchase when I was 5 years old. I had had my eye on this My Little Pony in the toy aisle at the Jewel for a while. The pony was purple, and when you squeezed it it made galloping and whinnying noises. It cost $8. At that time, that was 8 weeks worth of allowance for me. I mean, we’re talking big money here. When I had finally saved up enough money, I tagged along with my mom while she was grocery shopping, took the My Little Pony off the shelf, brought it up to the counter, and shelled out the eight Washingtons. When I got home, I tore open the packaging and wouldn’t put the thing down the entire night. My dad off-handedly made a remark about not playing with it too much or I would wear out the battery inside that made the noises. He meant it jokingly, but the comment was like a kick in the gut for me. I was suddenly aware of the fleeting nature of material goods. I couldn’t sleep that night, and was convinced I had made a horrible mistake in purchasing the pony. My parents talked me out of trying to return it to the store, but from then on I carefully rationed how many times I would squeeze to pony to hear the noises.

Melodramatic? Ok, slightly. But I remember this incident vividly, and I think it says a lot about my current fiscal nature. You see, I sort of have a really difficult time spending money. When I was a kid my income was always based on mowing the lawn and washing the dishes. I’ve worked various part-time jobs since I was 17. Money never came free to me, which is surprising to some given my parents’ economic status. But then again it never came free to them, either. When you have to work for money, it’s a lot harder to spend.

Why am I talking about this? Because I just got a job, that’s why. And I’m thinking about going shopping tomorrow and spending money on things that I haven’t allowed myself to spend money on in a while. And it will be difficult, and my brain might say “No! You don’t need that!” but I might just buy it anyway. During my five months in Chile, I spent almost all of my savings on travel expenses. Before I left for Chile I told myself that it would be OK to spend all of my money on a life-changing experience. And I don’t regret it. I got back to America scraping the bottom of the barrel that is my checking account, and planning on getting a job ASAP. But my wonderful grandparents gave me a very generous Christmas gift of cash that allowed me to put off the job search for a couple of months and get my feet back on the ground while I was readjusting to life back in Wheaton. I have tried to not really spend this money because I knew that the source was not being replenished while I was unemployed.

I am now employed. In a few weeks, the balance of my checking account will begin to increase with every paycheck rather than decrease every time I pay off my credit card (which I have for the sole purpose of building credit even though I don’t actually use the credit). It’s a good feeling. So, despite a previous entry involving a mall rant, I think I might go to the mall tomorrow. It’s my Spring Break, so I will go to the mall when all of the middle schoolers are still in school. I will go to the mall, sans kiddies, and I will spend money.

I’m always wary of random statistics, but here are some to ponder:

• 70% of divorces are caused by financial difficulties.

• 1,500,000 Americans file for bankruptcy every year.

• 71% of credit card holders only pay the minimum payment.

• Americans save on average -0.5% of their income.

• The average American household carries $10,000-$12,000 in debt and has 9 credit cards.

The bottom line is: a lot of people have financial problems. And financial problems cause a lot of stress. Now, maybe I’m a little too stingy. But I know people who don’t think twice about dropping $200 on a pair of boots that they just can’t afford, and they carry around a huge financial burden that I don’t think I will ever have.

I turned on the TV this morning (I’m on Spring Break so lots of sleeping, reading, and TV for me this week) and Walker, Texas Ranger happened to be on. Walker was roundhouse kicking some guy, and his deputy was asking some other guy if he wanted a “Hawaiian punch” while dunking his head into, you guessed it: a bowl of punch.

The bad guys depicted on Walker, Texas Ranger and in television and movies in general are so one-dimensional. They’re always the same. They wear dark clothes and they always have scowls on their faces. You never find out if they have kids or what their childhood was like. That pile-drive to the gut isn’t as fun if you know Junior’s waiting for daddy to come tuck him in when this is all over.

There is a big philosophical debate over whether people are inherently good or inherently bad. Personally, I am intrigued by the Christian concept of the “fallen nature” of human beings. We were created good, but somewhere along the way we get corrupted. It just seems to be the best explanation for what I see going on in this world. Despite what Walker would have us believe, I don’t think there are really “bad guys” in this world. These one-dimensional, almost cartoonish caricatures that are only ever focused on doing evil just don’t really exist.

Maybe some people come pretty close. You could probably make a good case for Hitler or Saddam Hussein being pure evil. At the very least they were sociopaths. But those guys were children once too, you know? There was a time when they were five years old and their days consisted of playing soccer and bickering with their siblings. Then somewhere along the way, they fell into a bad business. Maybe it was a calculated plan, or maybe they just got sucked into something and got in over their heads.

Someday I would like to do an informal investigation on suicide bombers. As much as I dislike George Clooney, I was intrigued by the plot line in Syriana that depicted the recruitment, training, and final mission of suicide bombers in the Middle East. I thought that by going into the psyche of a suicide bomber, it provided an excellent contrast to the classic “bad guys” as they are portrayed in the media. These bombers weren’t just evil men. They were barely even adults at all. They were young men who got sucked into an ideology. They were targeted because of their rough backgrounds. They were given food and resources they never had access to before. Their religious training provided a smoke screen for extremist ideologies. And they were promised comfort and provision for their families after they completed their suicide missions. The process is complicated and psychological, but definitely not black and white.

I just don’t believe people are evil anymore. I know it is very easy to believe this. I know. But you start to peel back the layers, and things get a whole lot more complex.

The gray is starting to close in.

 

I am currently one of the gazillions of Americans who watch American Idol. I don’t consider myself an obsessive fan- I just can’t really afford the five hours per week time commitment that faithful Idol viewership requires these days. But if I’m sitting around with nothing to do I feel no shame in tuning in to American Idol. I would describe my affection for this show as intrigue more than anything. I am absolutely fascinated by the massive success that the show has had. And I do mean massive success. This is evidenced by the tens of millions of viewers who tune in every week and vote, the consistent occupation of the show in the #1 and #2 spots in the ratings, and the hundreds of thousands of dollars advertisers shell out for a 30-second commercial spot on Fox during its time slot. It is now in its 7th season, and this beast is showing no signs of slowing down. I have spent some time pondering the reasons for this type of success, and here’s what I think it boils down to:

1. Kelly Clarkson. Seriously. The tagline of American Idol is “The search for a superstar.” What would have happened if the show’s first winner had not been successful? What would have happened if Justin Guarini had won? The show would have lost a lot of credibility. But in the months immediately following the first season, Kelly Clarkson released “A Moment Like This” and “Miss Independent,” two enormous hits that catapulted her into superstardom that just kept growing. People saw her and figured the show actually had produced a legitimate star, and they tuned into the second season. In the second season the ratings jumped from #30 to #5. In the following several seasons, Kelly Clarkson just kept getting bigger and bigger, releasing her second album Breakaway which made her into a pop icon and earned her much critical acclaim. American Idol was able to continually point to her to justify its legitimacy despite the inability to reproduce her success in the next several seasons. American Idol should thank God every day for Kelly Clarkson.

2. Family-friendliness. This is a show that anyone and everyone can watch. Parents know this, and they are happy to encourage their kids to watch it rather than other, more mature programs. Plus, one should never underestimate the power of the 11-year old female demographic. There are a lot of them, and they form obsessions very easily. They also tend to obsess about the same things (High School Musical, Hannah Montana). This demographic seems to really like American Idol. But don’t count out the older generations. The show doesn’t have 70’s themes for nothing.

3. Viewer participation. A very unique aspect of this show is that the viewers are the ones that actually decide who wins (despite all of the conspiracy theories floating around). This gives the show a lot higher stakes, and involves a personal investment in seeing your favorite do well. If you vote for someone, you are more likely to tune in weekly to see how that person does.

4. Mix of familiarity and variety. This is a balance that American Idol has struck very well. The contestants change every season. Sure, you have a couple archetypes each time around, but generally it has been a very diverse mix. Even all of the winners have been surprisingly different. This makes the show new and exciting each season. Still, there is an element of familiarity in the judges and in the host, Ryan Seacrest. These have not changed in seven seasons (except for the booting of co-host Brian Dunkelman after the first season, thank God), and I think the audience appreciates it. The judges play off each other nicely, and Seacrest is a total pro at what he does. The whole scheme works out really well, and I bet the show would be willing to pay them any sum of money to maintain that element of familiarity.

5. The success of Idol contestants. I already mentioned Kelly Clarkson, but Idol contestants have become a permanent fixture on the charts. Kelly Clarkson and Carrie Underwood have probably had the biggest, longest-lasting, and most legitimate success, and we’ll see how Daughtry does, but there have been hits from other contestants, too, and not just winners. Sometimes you can look at the Billboard Top 100 and find six former Idol contestants. That’s pretty impressive, and again goes to the idea that this show actually produces something outside of itself.

6. Music. This show first came along in the middle of a miserable pop era when America was enduring the studio creations of Britney Spears and The Backstreet Boys. Then American Idol came along and showed us that there are still people in this country that can sing. When Kelly Clarkson hit that high note in “Natural Woman,” America sat up and said “Daaaaaaamnn, girl!” We had forgotten what that sounded like.

So that’s my analysis. I would congratulate the producers of American Idol on their brilliant formulation of the elements of this massively successful television show, but I’m not sure how much of it was planned this way. Part of me thinks a lot of it just came together through sheer dumb luck. Either way, they should be proud. American Idol has had quite the impact on our culture, and I think it’s been mostly positive.

I mailed in a resume and application for a summer internship today. I went to CPO to buy a stamp, and the guy handed over a stamp with a portrait of Jimmy Stewart on it. Since I had gone to a lot of trouble to make the envelope look good by getting a nice envelope from Career Services and printing out the addresses, I was a little hesitant to put Jimmy Stewart’s face on it. I asked the guy if they anything a little more official. It’s not too much to ask, right? I bet a lot of students and staff frequently send out official documents.

The guy responded by saying the other choices were Yoda or X-Men. Here’s to hoping someone at the State’s Attorney’s Office is a Jimmy Stewart fan.

I have always been a big believer in the importance of non-verbal communication.  Today I had an experience that reinforced this belief.

In my World History class we had a guest-lecturer that completely avoided looking at the students while he was lecturing.  There are a ton of students, so this is a difficult feat.  He managed it by looking at the wall above our heads, or at his notes, or down at the ground.  A couple students raised their hands to ask questions, but they were ignored because the professor couldn’t see that their hands were up.  I found the behavior so distracting that it was hard to focus on the actual content of his lecture.

Eye-contact is key.  If you don’t make eye-contact, people will assume one of three things: 1) You are autistic.  2) You are bored and uninterested.  3) You are very uncomfortable or insecure.  In the case of my professor, I would have to go with #3.  His hands were not shaky and his words were clear, but by avoiding all eye-contact with the students, he was sending a signal that he was insecure, either as a general aspect of his personality or maybe just in this situation lecturing to a couple hundred students.  This is an unfortunate habit of his lecture style, and I am sure he is totally unaware of it.  But his audience sure is, and someone should have told him about it ages ago.

Make eye-contact both as a listener and as a speaker.  It is possibly more important than the words you say or any verbal response you may give.  If this is difficult for you, work on it.  Make a conscious attempt.  Do not underestimate the importance of non-verbal communication.

I was walking from my apartment to the dining hall this morning for breakfast before my 9:15am Philosophy class.  A young boy on his way to school turned the corner ahead of me, so I was walking several paces behind him.  We started to pass a church with a parking lot that backs right up to the sidewalk.  There is a curb that divides the parking spaces from the walkway.  Seeing this, the boy jumped up to the curb and began to walk on it as if it were a balance beam.  I tried not to let him see me grinning at this.

I used to do that when I was a kid.  We all did, didn’t we?  When you’re a child, it’s not enough to just walk somewhere.  You look for every possible opportunity to challenge yourself, to test your prowess.  Whether it’s balancing on the curb or trying not to step on the cracks, there was a constant search for stimulation even in a simple walk to school.  That search fades as we grow older.  Now we just look for every opportunity to make life easier.  Sometimes we drive to campus if we don’t feel like walking the whole way.  Sometimes we just stick with the job we know is a safe bet, rather than going after the one that will challenge us even if it means possible failure.

I know people who play it safe in life.  I also know people who constantly seek out challenges that involve risk.  Guess which ones are happier?

Do you ever just catch random snippets of other people’s conversations?  It’s one of my favorite things.  Here’s an example of one I overheard in my Philosophy class this morning:

Kid #1: “I detect some cynicism in your attitude.”

Kid #2: “Yeah, well, I’m a Junior.”

I went to the mall today. I don’t make it to the mall very often these days, and I think from now on I will try to avoid intentionally ever going there again. I really hated it. The second I walked in, I was taken aback by the sheer quantity of middle schoolers. I have a rule that I generally try to stay away from middle schoolers. Remember middle school? Let’s reminisce.

In middle school I discovered sarcasm. It opened up an entire new world for me, and I used it at every possible moment, appropriate or not. My friends thought I was funny- they were middle schoolers too. But looking back I think my sarcastic humor was juvenile and unfunny. I think it was also mostly negative, and sometimes I took it too far and probably hurt other people’s feelings. I have definitely retained a dry sense of humor, but I’ve grown up a lot and it is more controlled.

When I was in middle school, I was pretty sure I knew just about everything there is to know. I thought I was just so smart. By the time I was 13, I was all set, and there wasn’t much left to learn. That was my opinion of my own knowledge until I was about 17, from which point it has been steadily declining. I am now of the opinion that I know absolutely nothing, and the older I get the more I believe that.

I was super judgmental in middle school. Like, the Jerry Falwell, fire and brimstone type. If you swore, if you were gay, if you were pro-choice, if you did any number of certain things I had deemed unacceptable, I shut you out and secretly condemned you to hell. I really distanced myself from relationships with some potentially great people, just because of one aspect I disagreed with. This probably continued until very recently, when I realized all of the awesome friendships I was missing out on.

Physically, I was pretty awkward in middle school. Things started changing faster than I could deal with. I had braces for two years. I also had a pretty strange wardrobe that consisted mainly of ankle-biter jeans and baggy sweatshirts.

I have grown up quite a bit since middle school. Generally I think the changes have been very positive. Two years ago the language arts teacher I had for all three years of middle school invited me and two of her other students to come and talk to her class about high school and college. Like I said, I was a jerk in middle school, but especially to this teacher. When I went back, I could tell how pleasantly surprised she was by how much I had matured. This made me pretty happy. While I generally don’t like reflecting on middle school or being around middle schoolers because it’s just sort of unpleasant, sometimes it’s nice to just compare and contrast the me of today with the me of 8 years ago.